The 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament, the hub of March Madness, will be known for its numerous upsets and its unexpected Final Four qualifiers. Of the 60 games played to date, only 41 (or 68.3%) were won by higher-seeded schools in the matchups, a considerably-lower mark than is customary. While upsets have been a recurring part of the event, the current tournament established a true upheaval and potential paradigm shift. A pair of 5-seeds in their quadrants (Miami and San Diego State), a 4-seed (Connecticut), and 9-seed Florida Atlantic comprise the Final Four field.
This is significant as it represents a reversal of the typical quartet. Normally, the average number of teams from the top quarter of participants (Region seeds 1-4) is three and there is one apart from that contingent. This year, it’s the opposite, with Connecticut being the sole representative from the mainstream or most likely qualifiers. As the tournament progressed, the brackets began "busting" with the second week of action showcasing the upsets. When the field had 64 teams in the initial round, the higher seeds were 25-7 (78%). That dropped to 11-5 (69%) when the schools narrowed to 32. In Week Two, the Sweet Sixteen "favorites" only broke even at 4-4 in their matchups, followed by a 1-3 record (25%) as the most recent round, known as the Elite Eight, concluded.
In the eleven previous tournaments, Region seeds 1-4, comprising the top quarter of the schools involved, won an average of 35.5 games per contest. The best total that can be attained this year, depending on how Connecticut fares, is 29. Should U Conn fall to Miami in the semi-final, the amount will be 27 wins—a substantial drop. Region seeds 5-12, usually the victor in 25 games in that eleven tournament span, have won 29 thus far. And that number will increase to at least 30, possibly to 32. Also, seeds 13-16 increased their output from the usual 2.5 wins to 4 in the ongoing tourney.
There are assorted theories for this season’s developments. But, at face value, the explanation is greater parity with newcomers sparking hungry mid-level caliber units. Additionally, the absence of 1-3 seeds in the Final Four suggests, perhaps, a dearth of especially-elite squads in the normal ranks.
A clearer contrast is evident when the tournaments of 2008-2010 are assessed. For instance, during that span, 20 of the 24 colleges in the Elite Eight phase came from Region seeds 1-4, as did 10 of the 12 Final Four teams. In the era subsequent, the higher-seeds still performed quite successfully. The eleven Final Fours until 2023 featured 32 schools from the 1-4 seed cluster compared to 12 from outside the top quarter—essentially 3 of the 4 teams on average.
Therefore, it is premature to declare the dawn of a new age in March Madness. The 2023 tournament could be anomalous due to several variables in the process. The decision-making model for seeding employed by the Selection Committee possibly did not account for such conditions. A reappraisal will doubtlessly occur given the present "Madness" leading to tweaks in the procedure.
Hold Back The Nite 