With regard to the 2024 Republican nomination for President, most national and state polls presently show that former office-holder Donald Trump, despite multiple legal entanglements, is the Party’s front-runner. Trump maintains a sizable lead over prospective candidate Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida. Though DeSantis initially appeared to be the new darling of the GOP, the issue of electability—ironically introduced by DeSantis himself—has seemingly subverted his aspirations for now. Trump, despite all his flaws and extensive baggage, is still the Party’s dominant figure. Since it is quite certain former VP Mike Pence will not be Trump’s running mate once the nominating process is settled, the point of this essay is to examine the ongoing pageant, an exercise in posturing and fundraising, to forecast the ticket.
The GOP has never been considered a contingent of diversity. Traditionally, older white men have been the leaders since its inception. So, what is curious, even startling to a degree, is the field of announced candidates to date. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott, radio host Larry Elder, business executive Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump critic Asa Hutchinson, and the aforementioned Pence (though not yet official) comprise Trump’s competition while DeSantis weighs a run. I would contend there is an element of contrived casting in the process. Specifically, this cadre essentially consists of no one genuinely capable of securing the nomination. However, demographically, they supply the Party with an assortment of fresh eclectic faces and backgrounds in the prevailing political sphere. Also, they are not readily perceived as overt "Trumpers" like Jim Jordan or Kevin McCarthy. However, there is no divergence in most of the opinions from the hopefuls thus far.
It should be noted there is little chance of DeSantis becoming Trump’s running mate. Both are decidedly headstrong and egotistical, perhaps the only qualities they have in common. Such a pairing resembles an alliance between, say, Stalin and Napoleon. Far more probable is a Trump-Haley or Trump-Scott duo in order to convey to most voters the semblance of a "new" GOP, in tune with the times and "committed" to diversity, despite grumbling apt to ensue from the MAGA faithful. Further, since Trump’s sole concern is the 2024 election, he is not compelled to endorse a successor in a subsequent contest. No "Celebrity Apprentice" is anticipated to be anointed. The greater likelihood is that Trump allows DeSantis and others to duke it out for later prominence.
In 2016, Pence supplied for Trump the ideal wingman, charismatically-challenged and ill-equipped to upstage the "star." In 2024, the same model of "junior partner" should be operable. But, again, the complexion and/or gender of the VP is bound to be different from those of years past. Though VP Kamala Harris has not proven to be the strongest asset of the Biden Administration, Democrats designating a woman of color to eventually occupy the second-highest post in the country had to influence inclusive-minded independent voters in 2020. Republicans may believe such a voting bloc could represent the difference between winning and losing in a tight race.
Meanwhile, the campaign trail features the standard rhetoric by the hopefuls. The requisite discourse about "woke" culture, Critical Race Theory, drag queens, transgender sports competition, an emphasis on mental health as a substitute for gun control measures, illegal immigration, anti-environmental stances, and similar notions are typical topics comprising the agenda. Strangely (but perhaps not), few have outwardly denounced Russian aggression against Ukraine, and friendly media have yet to press the point. Candidates have been vocal on what they oppose but short on details about domestic and foreign policy initiatives they support. But saying little of authentic consequence is customary at this stage. Therefore, I label these largely-benign campaign visits "political loitering" since little is said yet stated sufficiently to generate hand-shakes and photos at community gathering places and also skirt by during brief TV interviews.
The first scheduled debate involving Republican candidates for President is in August, just four months away. It will be worth viewing to determine whether there will be a shift to substantive discussion on subjects of consequence as the hopefuls seek to establish themselves as noteworthy contenders or whether this enterprise is a mere charade in order to serve Trump in his White House bid.
Hold Back The Nite 