Since 2020, the Pirates have maintained a record of consistent failure. As of May 25th 2025, the club has a mark of 313-449, a winning percentage of .411 that amounts to 66.5 wins over the course of a 162-game season. In that period, they’ve yet to have a year where they finished close to .500. In 2020 and so far in 2025, their winning percentage in both instances, to date, was just .333. The only constant in the era has been GM Ben Cherington as former manager Derek Shelton was let go 38 games into the 2025 campaign.
What I did was to calculate the team’s performance in several areas to account for the futility—taking the club’s offensive output (runs per game) and pitching performance (ERA) in the 762 game span, then comparing it to the rest of the National League’s teams during the same duration. The methodology involved separating the Bucs’ stats from the rest of the field. What I discovered was intriguing but probably not too shocking. After all, it’s the Pirates.
Since Paul Skenes has been with the Bucs, their overall ERA has been exactly equal to the NL average at 4.12. This is likely correlation rather than causation but it underscores the value of Skenes to the staff. It is not an overstatement to say Skenes has been integral to the improvement. The Pirates’ ERA during the 2020-2023 span was 4.77. The NL ERA in the comparable period was 4.23, about a half-run lower. So, call Skenes the great equalizer. Also, the club’s record with Skenes on board is 96-121 for a .440 winning percentage. With no Skenes during 2020-2023, their record is 218-328 for a win % of .399. That’s an enormous disparity.
What is especially notable about the Skenes difference is that the Bucs have only mustered 829 runs in the 216 contests of which he’s been a member. That is an average of 3.84 per game. Somehow, despite that low offensive output, they’ve actually been more successful that they were in the 2020-23 period when they were scoring a comparable, nearly equal, amount of runs per game at 3.86. In other words, the winning percentage jumped considerably since Skenes has been in Pgh even though the hitters haven’t generated more scoring that they did pre-Skenes.
There is no intervening explanation that stands out. He’s an X factor, the main variable so far in the gap between being an awful team with a 64.6-97.4 mark and less-awful one that goes 71-91.
But there’s more . . .
During the Skenes tenure, the Bucs starting pitchers, in 216 outings, have a 3.87 ERA in a total of 1152.1 IP, with a typical duration of 5 and one-third innings. Prior to Skenes, the SP ERA was 4.97—over a run higher per start—with an average length of 4.77 innings before being lifted. So, SPs are going deeper into games and their improved effectiveness is very clear.
So, as you can see, a solitary starting pitcher is making a major impact though his team’s fortunes are still well below par. Do not look for the club to part with Skenes in the near future. It will be incumbent on he and his agent to negotiate their path out of a bad organization.
Hold Back The Nite 